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By Borowcki R

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It is also tricky to simulate results back in time because it can be hard to get hold of accurate historical data for margin requirements. Still, there are large funds using this concept with very strong results and so I don’t write it off. Slippage, commission and other costs Underestimating the effect of costs is generally a bad idea. It makes your simulations look nice, but when the rubber meets the road you will feel the pain of the mistake. In this chapter I assume US$20 per futures contract round trip and market specific realistic slippage.

I use a crude but pragmatic scheme consisting of only five sectors: agricultural commodities, non-agricultural commodities, currencies, equities and rates. - 29 - I introduce each of these sectors as well as a selection of important markets within each sector which we will use for the strategies in this book. Agricultural commodities Purists may take issue with my definition of agricultural commodities, because I include softs, grains, fibres, meats and so on in this sector, but I prefer a practical and pragmatic sector definition to a textbook definition.

Trend-following strategies look easy and highly profitable when you look at long-term return charts, but you need to study the shorter term down to daily variations and trades to be able to judge whether you can really follow the strategy in real life. It’s a matter of your own personality and whether you could and want to trade in the style that the strategy dictates, and the matter of how your clients will see the results. Many of these strategies have drawdowns of up to 30% and can sometimes take a year or more to recover.

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